What is considered the best predictor of future mutual fund performance?

The best predictor of future mutual fund performance is indeed past performance. This is rooted in the principle that funds that have consistently performed well in the past are more likely to continue that trend in the future. While there are many factors that can influence mutual fund performance, historical performance gives investors insight into how well the fund has navigated different market conditions. This record reflects the fund manager's strategy, decision-making, and the fund's resilience during various economic cycles.

The other factors, although important, do not serve as strong predictors on their own. The fund manager's experience can contribute to the fund's strategies and overall performance, but it does not guarantee future results as market conditions can change. The expense ratio matters in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a fund, influencing net returns, but it does not directly predict performance. Similarly, the size of the fund can provide context about its market presence but does not necessarily correlate with how well the fund will perform moving forward. Thus, relying on past performance remains the most reliable indicator when assessing the potential future success of mutual funds.